Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
